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Why the Electoral College is Relevant Today

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Ms. Ginny Stroud

No one cares one bit about the electoral college until they suddenly pivot to extremely caring about the electoral college. That happens around the time a close election teases out the distinction between popular election and the buffer against the masses we call the electoral college.

 

A common argument against the current system is straightforward: it is in place to prevent the will of the people from overriding the will of the elite. That’s not very democratic now is it? The electoral college  is the inverse of universal suffrage, which is the direction the United States has been heading for most of its existence (slowly). On the one hand, ‘No taxation without representation’ was part of the rationale for the revolution against the English Crown (I know what you’re thinking D.C., sit down and be quiet).

The 15th amendment in 1869 prohibited the denial of the right to vote based on race, color, or previous condition of servitude. The 19th amendment in 1919 prohibited the denial of the right to vote based on sex. In 1971, the 26th amendment reduced the voting age from 21 to 18, in large part to ensure that draft age men could have a voice.

Yet, don’t forget what Ms. Ginny Stroud, the Civics teacher in Dazed and Confused, reminded her students about July 4th as they finished their last days of school before Summer:

Don’t forget what you’re celebrating and that’s the fact that a bunch of slave-owning aristocratic white males didn’t want to pay their taxes.

And if there’s one thing that slave-owning aristocratic white males wanted, it was to keep their position of being slave-owning aristocratic white males safe. Hence, the electoral college. Or, to put it in a more Hamiltonian manner (from The Mode of Electing the President. From the New York Packet. Friday, March 14, 1788.):

It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations. It was also peculiarly desirable to afford as little opportunity as possible to tumult and disorder. This evil was not least to be dreaded in the election of a magistrate, who was to have so important an agency in the administration of the government as the President of the United States. But the precautions which have been so happily concerted in the system under consideration, promise an effectual security against this mischief.

The choice of SEVERAL, to form an intermediate body of electors, will be much less apt to convulse the community with any extraordinary or violent movements, than the choice of ONE who was himself to be the final object of the public wishes.

That’s right, don’t convulse the community with extraordinary or violent movements. That’s been one of my primary reasons for being a supporter of Hillary this whole election cycle, because the older I get, the more unsettlingScreen Shot 2016-05-07 at 9.27.53 PM.png a revolution sounds. And this is not because I don’t think that the country could be better. It’s because I also think that it could be a lot worse.

A little taste of what convulsing the community will get you can be had in reading The Economist‘s article ‘Tethered by History’ recounting the failings of the Arab Spring in bringing about change in the middle east. Maybe I’m over-reacting, but the last time I looked, the world economy has yet to find its footing again after the recession beginning in 2008. Fortunately, many of the aftershocks of that quake were dulled by the stabilizing influence of the EU in keeping countries like Greece and Portugal from becoming failed states. After all, nothing puts pressure on a marriage like financial problems.

That all said, the Presidential primaries have been a good, safe place for the parties to work out their own problems and figure out what they believe in.

With that in mind, the greatest good I see coming from the Bernie Sanders Campaign is that it has shown that a substantial portion of Democratic voters are further to the Left than where the Democratic Party has drifted in recent decades. Sanders is a sign to Hillary that moving to the Right, as many Democratic Nominees have done, is not the only way to garner more votes.

The good that I see coming from the Donald Trump Campaign is much the same. The Republican have been moving to the Right and building grassroots support especially amongst social conservatives since the time of Ralph Reed. Ted Cruz was an excellent example of this in the current election cycle, which had nothing but party non-conformists for Republicans to choose from with the exceptions of Rubio and Bush.

The harm of these candidates is that the only way to move the parties was to unmoor the safety lines and push. My only hope is that if either of these outsiders gets into office,  the governmental ground game that has resembled trench warfare for the past decade will continue to spend time doing nothing until we can put saner minds in control again.

Which brings me back to my initial position, that separating the fickle will of the people from the actual reigns of power may be the only thing that keeps the US from turning directly into the tempest. I’ve been accused before of being an elitist when it comes to government, but frankly, it’s because I would much rather have the best person in office than the loudest. Isn’t that what being an elite is about? Not being subject to the wind, but still sensing its influence and understanding what it means?

Just like so many other multiple choice questions, when none of the answers look correct, select the best from what you have. And if you can’t see which is the best available, don’t vote.Cthulhu 2016.jpg

 

 
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Posted by on May 7, 2016 in Uncategorized

 

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Dunning-Kruger and The Donald: torn between two topics

Like many other things in my life, I was made aware of the Dunning-Kruger Effect from listening to NPR. This time, it was my longest running favorite show, This American Life, that clued me in.

Briefly, the Dunning-Kruger Effect is is a cognitive bias in which relatively unskilled persons suffer illusory superiority, mistakenly assessing their ability to be much higher than it really is. The effect gets its name from the authors of the 199 paper, “Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments” by Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 77(6), Dec 1999, 1121-1134

One of the things that Dunning (who was interviewed for the show) said was that the effect had become a ‘meme’ that was often mentioned on twitter. To test this, the show’s producer immediately went online, entered the name of the two authors, and came up with a tweet calling Donald Trump a perfect example of the effect.

Ha! this is gunna be huge!! I can see myself gliding off the rails…

It’s hard to not see Trump as an example of any number of  psychological conditions. In fact, I think that it might be this more than anything that has all of us (even the ones who don’t admit it) fascinated by the Trump spectacle.

And the pool answered,
‘But I loved Narcissus because,
as he lay on my banks and looked down at me,
in the mirror of his eyes I saw ever my own beauty mirrored.’

Of course, merely by saying this, we are all sharing the tongue-in-cheek agreement that we know, for a fact, that The Donald is not at all intelligent. The assumption is not just that he is no better than average, but that he is significantly below average. Which might be going a bit too far. A total moron would have lost all the money he ever got from dad, wouldn’t he? I suspect that we’re all just over compensating for Trump’s own excesses in regard to self-opinion.We react to the narcissist by knocking them down – all the way down.

Again, I’m losing control

The problem is not whether the man is smart or dumb, ignorant or wise. The problem is that we are about to hand the reigns of what is arguably the world’s most powerful country over to an amateur out of frustration that things aren’t going better than they are. Imagine using that same logic in hiring a plumber or electrician for your home. “I’m so sick of all the electrical problems this place is having, I think I’ll hire Brittany Spears to wire my house! She’s rich; she must know what she’s doing.”

While Brittany probably is willing to admit that she doesn’t know anything about electrical work (I’m assuming this is true, but I don’t know), the narcissist finds nothing outside of his ken. See this great article in Vanity Fair where physcologists participate in some armchair sport and analyze Trump’s mind.

Grammar_Dunning_Kruger

From the 1999 paper

Getting back to the Dunning-Kruger effect, I think it’s worth noting that all groups in the data shown here believe that they’ve performed similarly. Dunning seemed to think that this was because the highest quarter was either modest or over estimating of others’ abilities, while the lowest two quarters were simply suffering from the using the same poor analytical skills in assessing themselves as they did in solving text questions.  How much is this just hand-waving to explain why we feel like the children of lake woebegone, all of us: above average?

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The Figure 3 data above shows the Effect following examination of grammar ability. Nearly identical data resulted from similar examinations of logic and … humor? Apparently jokes were rated by commedians (in order to establish factual data on humor?) and then the participants were examined as with the other subjects.

Really though. How can you say that someone is incorrect on their ability to recognize funny. The problem I see with that data is that everyone – absolutely everyone, should have said that they scored 100% on that test.

 

 
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Posted by on April 28, 2016 in Uncategorized

 

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The State of Science Education

Spotting-Bad-Science-v2.pngI’m not sure how I came to be reading this article, especially strange because the byline states that it was published over a year ago in The American Spectator. I expect it was mindlessly following some click-bait on Yahoo that brought me there, but what I found was the tragic remnants of a mind denied a proper education in scientific method, logic, and mathematics.

Emily Zanotti wrote up her impressions of a scientific study she had uncovered in an article titled, “Study Finds John Kerry Worst Secretary of State in the History of Ever. John Hayward wrote a similar piece for Breitbart the same day, as did the Washington Post, under the slightly less scathing headline, “Scholars votes put Kerry last in terms of effectiveness.” So, why focus on this minor publication’s reporting over more mainstream outlets? I don’t have much reason other than the fact that I found the article there first and the visceral nature of the title held my attention best (remember, I found it by following click-bait while trying to find a reasonable source of right wing news).

I really don’t care (at least for the purposes of this discussion) one bit about the actual question, but would rather focus on how these data were interpreted for the popular press (using Ms. Zanotti’s article as my example).

First, the data:

The articles I found pointed to Foreign Policy Magazine as the source, the actual data in the rawest form I could find can be found here.

Who was polled? (because this is an opinion survey):The poll was sent to International Relations (IR) faculty from colleges and universities around the country. Responses were received from 1,615 IR scholars drawn from 1,375 U.S. institutions.

The question about Secretaries of State was one of many, and was phrased as, “Who was the most effective U.S. Secretary of State in the past 50 years? ” We’re told that the number of responses to this particular question was 655. I think it’s rather strange that only half of the respondents answered this question, especially given that one of the most popular answers was ‘I don’t know’ receiving 18.32% of the vote, or 120 ballots.

The Results were reported as:

Screen Shot 2016-04-17 at 4.19.07 PM.pngIf you count them up, there were 13 distinct answers given –

only 12 are people if we drop out the ‘I don’t know’..
This is interesting because the headline read that Kerry was the worst

I agree that he is last on this list, but depending on how you want to count, the number of people who sat in that office for the past 50 years was either 15 actual Secretaries of State or 28 Secretaries + acting Secretaries.

Either way you slice it, we’re missing some people from this list. A quick look at trusty Wikipedia show us who we’re missing (See below). Where is Will Rogers in the poll? Edmund Muskie? Apparently these poor souls got zero votes, so they don’t show up in a percentage-based calculation.

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At 0.31%, poor John Kerry received only 2 votes as the most effective Secretary of State (SoS) in the past 50 years. But Rogers and Muskie apparently got zero. It’s hard to see that this puts Kerry in last place.

But that’s not all. The question asks, “who was the most effective SoS?” which isn’t the same as asking respondents to “rank the SoSs according to effectiveness.” What would the percentages look like if two Secretaries (say, Bob and Hank) were the clear front-runners and everyone agreed on that point? Moreover, imagine that everyone also agreed that a third Secretary(Sally) clearly came in right behind the two front runners, but couldn’t compare to the undeniable efficacy of the first two. My guess would be that Bob and Hank would split the 655 votes, and no one else would get any. Not even Sally. Everyone else ties for last place.

Ms. Zanotti’s piece continues, “John Kerry is the worst Secretary of State in history according to a survey of professors at the top 25 foreign policy schools conducted by Foreign Policy Magazine, losing out, even, to ‘Don’t Know.'”

bad_science1.jpgBut no one was asked to name the worst SoS. What is true of this survey is that very few people think Kerry is the best. As for ‘Don’t know’, I imagine that these are the people who simply can’t decide between Bob and Hank, from the example above. Those two are just too close to call. Further, since ‘Don’t know’ came in second, it’s hard to say that Kerry was beaten by this answer in any meaningful way.

She continues, “Of the scholars who responded, Kerry earned exactly two votes, and came in after Lawrence Engleberger who was Secretary of State for a whole six weeks at the end of George H. W. Bush’s second term, and spent most of that time keeping the chair warm for the Clinton appointee.Which had me wondering if perhaps one of the best ways to be an effective SoS is to not have much happen, as is the case when someone is in office for only a very short time.

One last statement on the data before going to her conclusion… In reporting the results of the poll, she mentions that, “James Baker — who was actually the most effective secretary in the last 50 years” came in third at 17.7%. Wait – what? Where is this “who was actually the most effective secretary” come from? Was there another measure that we haven’t been provided with? My guess is there was not, but that this is the author’s admission that she has already determined the right answer and that no data applies to this opinion.

Ms. Zanotti then ends her essay with this strange statement, “At any rate, it’s nice to know our collective impression of Kerry’s effectiveness is objectively verified. ”

I guess she knows her audience, so the “our collective impression” probably makes sense saying, but what about the idea that Kerry’s effectiveness has now been objectively verified?

What about an opinion poll could ever result in an objective verification? I suppose she might mean that it is now verified that many people hold some opinion, but it’s hardly objective. To arrive at this conclusion, we have to accept that the sum of many (at least 655) subjective opinions is equal to an objective conclusion.

This is equivalent to saying that a poll of 400 Yahoos objectively verifies that the sum of 2 and 2 is 8. All we have is a group of opinions. They might be the opinions of very smart people who are speaking within their field, but there’s no logical necessity that they are correct.

So, to return to my title. I can only assume that this hot mess of an essay comes from a completely science deprived education. Who is the author, Emily Zanotti? I had never heard of her and had her pegged for a one-off writer who wasn’t really involved in the world, but I stand corrected. She’s apparently well known amongst the Right as an outspoken libertarian. Her twitter bio reads, “Writer, blogger, comedian, nerd. Cosplayer. Catholic. Political reporter. Resident geek . Libertarian. Opinions my own but should be yours.” Her R Street bio calls her, “a columnist for the The American Spectator  and an associate fellow of the R Street Institute. She is a ten-year veteran of political communications and online journalism based out of Chicago, where she runs her own digital media firm. Her work has appeared at her former blog, NakedDC, and across the web. She has a law degree from Ave Maria School of Law with a focus in intellectual property and technology law” (Sic).

I’d never heard of the Ave Maria School of law, so I had to look that up too. The Miami New Times  had this to say about the school:

Meanwhile, Ave Maria — founded by Domino’s Pizza magnate Tom Monaghan and relocated in 2009 from Ann Arbor, Michigan — continues to plummet, finishing dead last with a horrific 47.8 percent of students passing the [Florida Bar Exam].

However, this poor performance is apparently relatively new, with  former Ave Maria law professor, Charles Rice, stating in the same article that the school’s performance was good prior to the move. Together, these statements make it difficult to use the school as any proxy assessment of the person’s education. Regardless, her R Street bio suggests that she’s not a fool. Therefore, I’m left wondering… how did this article happen?

 

 
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Posted by on April 17, 2016 in Uncategorized

 

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Why is torture so bad anyway?

Apparently Donald Trump does speak for most Americans, or at least the folks at Unfiltered Patriot would have you think so. The Donald has been taking some heat for expressing his opinions on Torture. “We have to play the game the way they’re playing the game. You’re not going to win if we’re soft and they’re, they have no rules.” He has repeatedly stated that waterboarding is the least of the measures that he would use to extract information from terrorists / enemy combatants. Here Trump is following advice often attributed to Sun Tzu: “To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” However, this quote is a misattribution, appearing nowhere in The Art of War. Probably because it’s a bad idea. Michael Prescott explains why this is so very clearly in his short essay, Becoming your Enemy, where he explains that, “fighting the enemy is what the enemy wants.”

Vladmir Lenin knew this. He is quoted as saying that, “the purpose of terrorism is to terrorize.”The blogger, Gowdey, succinctly describes this purpose, and how it realizes the flaw of the ‘Become your Enemy’ quote, in this 2007 Common Sense essay as…

Although terrorism employs violent means, and often uses military weaponry to execute attacks and massacres – the objective of a terrorist act isn’t military victory. In fact, military forces are almost never the target of terrorist attacks. The objective of a terrorist attack is political reaction. The strategy behind such attacks is for them to be the catalyst, direct or indirect, for political change that weakens the enemy.

In classic political/strategic theory, the purpose of terrorism is to create a political psychology of fear and anger that persuades a government to undertake repressive and violent activities against its own populace, gradually losing their support, and eventually causing its own demise.

In the aftermath of the terrible events of terrorism committed on September 11th 2001, President Bush addressed America in a joint session of congress nine days later to voice a response to the attacks. In this response, the President outlined what we knew about Al Qaeda at the time. We knew it was led by Osama bin Laden and that it had been responsible for previous attacks on western targets including, the truck bombing of the World Trade Center, a suicide attack on the USS Cole, and a number of Embassy bombings. They hate our freedoms: our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.

Then, as if to assure us that the U.S. would not stumble blindly into becoming our enemy, he explained the motive of the terrorists. “They hate our freedoms: our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.” He also attempted to quell any potential anti-Islam reactionary response by clarifying that these terrorists, “practice a fringe form of Islamic extremism that has been rejected by Muslim scholars and the vast majority of Muslim clerics; a fringe movement that perverts the peaceful teachings of Islam.”

However, three days later, on 14 September 2001, Congress passed the Authorization to Use Military Force, stating:Screen Shot 2016-04-04 at 10.56.40 PM.png

Section 2 – Authorization For Use of United States Armed Forces

(a) IN GENERAL- That the President is authorized to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations or persons.

(b) War Powers Resolution Requirements-

(1) SPECIFIC STATUTORY AUTHORIZATION- Consistent with section 8(a)(1) of the War Powers Resolution, the Congress declares that this section is intended to constitute specific statutory authorization within the meaning of section 5(b) of the War Powers Resolution.

(2) APPLICABILITY OF OTHER REQUIREMENTS- Nothing in this resolution supersedes any requirement of the War Powers Resolution.

This gave the President what one might arguably call unrestricted right to do anything he (or she) pleases. Furthermore, the only time restriction mentioned is ‘future,’ so, for as long as there exists time, the President maintains these powers.

On 26 October 2001, the President signed the USA Patriot Act, which made a number of changes to U.S. law. Changes were made to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act of 1978  (FISA), the Electronic Communications Privacy Act of 1986 (ECPA), the Money Laundering Control Act of 1986, the Bank Secrecy Act, and the Immigration and Nationality Act, all for the purpose of loosening restrictions on government agencies that had prevented them from spying on, well, everyone. America had changed. With one (rather large) Act, we ensured that the freedoms that Al Qaeda hated us for were much fewer in number.

Soon came the realization that by fighting a non-governmental, terrorist group, we were in untested waters, and we changed again. This time, we abandoned our position of moral superiority by opening the prison in Guantanamo Bay to house ‘enemy combatants.’

The 1949 Geneva Conventions defined ‘enemy combatants‘ as

Any person in an armed conflict who could be properly detained under the laws and customs of war.” In the case of a civil war or an insurrection the term “enemy state” may be replaced by the more general term “Party to the conflict.”

Of course, it’s hard to say what goes on in Gitmo. However, it was learned that one strategy involved the use of what came to be known as ‘enhanced interrogation techniques.’ The BBC provides an excellent look into how the US government distinguishes between torture (which it says it does not engage in) and enhanced interrogation (which is just fine).

The exemplar of enhanced interrogation is waterboarding (also see the BBC article above). Arguments about whether waterboarding represents torture or not have gone on for several years now.

On Saturday, 5 March 2016, Presidential Candidate, Donald Trump revisited the discussion saying repeatedly that, as President, he would seek to “broaden” U.S. laws to allow torture, including but not limited to waterboarding. In justification, Trump vowed to “strengthen the laws so that we can better compete” with ISIS‘ brutal tactics. “Did somebody tell ISIS, ‘Look, we’re going to treat your guys well. Will you please do us a favor and treat our guys well?’ They don’t do that. We’re not playing by — we are playing by rules, but they have no rules. It’s very hard to win when that’s the case,” Trump said, adding that the United States’ ban on waterboarding is a sign of weakness.

Providing some clarity, Trump returned to his win/lose view of world politics:

Did somebody tell ISIS, ‘Look, we’re going to treat your guys well. Will you please do us a favor and treat our guys well?’ They don’t do that. We’re not playing by — we are playing by rules, but they have no rules. It’s very hard to win when that’s the case,”

“I think we’ve become very weak and ineffective. I think that’s why we’re not beating ISIS. It’s that mentality… [ISIS] must think we are a little bit on the weak side.”
This brings me back to the Unfiltered Patriot. In reporting the results of a Reuters survey, they find that Americans are actually quite comfortable with the use of torture.
[T]he poll asked respondents if they could justify torture “against suspected terrorists to obtain information about terrorism.” 25% said that such torture was “often” acceptable and another 38% said it was “sometimes” justified. Only 15% of respondents said it was never okay.
More scientific polling on the question by Gallup has found that Americans are not as eager to support torture when they are asked at times other than immediately following an attack.
Screen Shot 2016-04-04 at 11.22.22 PM.png
For a more comprehensive look into how Americans feel about specific acts of torture (relevant to Islamic enemy combatants):
Screen Shot 2016-04-04 at 11.26.17 PM.png
Further, a majority of Americans believe that the U.S. government should abide by the Geneva Conventions – although, at 57%, I find this to be a much smaller majority than I would have hoped for.
Going beyond just the terrorists, Trump has also suggested, “I would be very, very firm with families … Frankly, that will make people think, because they may not care much about their lives, but they do care, believe it or not, about their families’ lives.”
One last thought (again, from Gallup 2011):
Of 2,482 Americans asked whether violence resulting in the death of civilians is never justified…
Results were broken down by religious affiliations including Muslims, Catholics, Protestants, and atheists.
Screen Shot 2016-04-04 at 11.40.40 PM.png
 
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Posted by on April 4, 2016 in Uncategorized

 

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Trumps Sets a Low Bar; Celebrates Own Greatness

There’s a part of me that is getting worried by Donald Trump’s persistence in the GOP primary race. That same part of me wonders, if he wins, whether this blog entry will be used against me in some dark future.

Then I think back to races past when other candidates were leading in polls (and even in primaries a bit later) around this time in past election years.  Newt Gingrich was certain that his lead was insurmountable for a time in 2011.  Pat Buchanan  won the New Hampshire primary back in 1996. Hillary Clinton won that same primary in 2008 and looked unstoppable. Ron Paul was getting more attention than ever in 2011-early 2012. None of those candidates won the presidency, or even became their party’s nominee.

Politics can be scary, but often times it does actually select for mature, level-headed leaders in the highest offices – seemingly in spite of the process that gets them there. But loud-mouthed, bellicose bullies do have their draw. Palin rode the wave of jingoism all the way to her Party’s vice presidential nomination, for instance, with little more than volume and a message so simplistic it left extra space on a bumper sticker: ‘Drill baby, drill.’

Lately, Trump has let the dogs out by suggesting policies such as mass deportations of ~11 million illegal immigrants, closing our border to Mexico with a massive wall and to Muslims at every port of entry. He’s proposed shutting the internet down because it’s used by terrorists (I wonder if any of them use cell phones?)

In an interview with ‘Good Morning America’s George Stephanopoulos, Trump was asked: “You’re increasingly being compared to Hitler…Does that give you any pause at all?”

“No, because what I am doing is no different than what FDR — FDR’s solution for Germans, Italians, Japanese, you know, many years ago…This is a president who is highly respected by all…He did the same thing.”

I shouldn’t get myself into this, but I can’t help it…

I could be wrong, but I didn’t think it was internment that made FDR a highly respected president, I thought that had more to do with giving people jobs and building infrastructure.

“I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created.”

how?

“I’ll bring back our jobs, and I’ll bring back our money.”

Oh.

What about healthcare?

Don’t worry, he’s got health. “I consider my health, stamina and strength one of my greatest assets.” and on Twitter: “As a presidential candidate, I have instructed my long-time doctor to issue, within two weeks, a full medical report-it will show perfection”

What about everyone else. Those of us who weren’t so blessed with perfection?

“We have to repeal Obamacare … it can be replaced with something much better for everybody… much better and much less expensive for people and for the government. “

Any ideas on how to make that happen?

“[W]e can do it.”

Ok.

This presidency thing is looking easier all the time. It’s amazing no one has managed to do it well before now.

 
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Posted by on December 21, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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Undisclosed Funding – or – How to Look Like You have Something to Hide

Apparently disclosure of funding sources does not seem to be a important to some researchers. In Paul Offit’s Autism’s False Prophets, Andrew Wakefield’s failure to disclose $800,000 given to him by Richard Barr’s law firm to link MMR vaccine to Autism is a major factor contributing to his decline and fall. In Wakefield’s case, he failed to disclose any conflicts of interest as required by the journal, The Lancet, where he published his work.

The Lancet’s Author Instructions state clearly what may constitute a conflict of interest and that anything giving the impression of a conflict should be reported to the editor.

A conflict of interest exists when professional judgement concerning a primary interest (such as patients’ welfare or validity of research) may be influenced by a secondary interest (such a financial gain). Financial relationships are easily identifiable … A conflict can be actual or potential, and full disclosure to the Editor is the safest course.

At the end of the text, under a subheading “Declaration of interests”, all authors must disclose any financial and personal relationships with other people or organisations that could inappropriately influence (bias) their work.

Wakefield’s failure to report the potential conflict of interest both to the journal and also to his collaborators. Unsurprisingly, both groups were upset when they learned about the money. Eventually, along with alleged ethical violations, Wakefield had his license to practice medicine revoked and his paper retracted.

524990main_FAQ10_fullOne would think that this would serve as a warning to those with similar perceived conflicts, suggesting the best course of action to be one of full disclosure. In the end, it is often easier to defend a potential conflict that the author puts forward him or herself, rather than having to retroactively explain why information was withheld and then try to demonstrate that any conflicts did not impact the quality or findings discovered.

Nevertheless, The New York Times has published an account of a very similar situation in climate science today. In their article, Deeper Ties to Corporate Cash for Doubtful Climate Researcher, the case of Wei-Hock Soon, a scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics who claims that variations in the sun’s energy can largely explain recent global warming is being investigated for the influence of cash on his findings.

The crux of the times article is that Soon…

… accepted more than $1.2 million in money from the fossil-fuel industry over the last decade while failing to disclose that conflict of interest in most of his scientific papers. At least 11 papers he has published since 2008 omitted such a disclosure, and in at least eight of those cases, he appears to have violated ethical guidelines of the journals that published his work.

The disclosure of Soon’s funding does not mean that his data were influenced by the money, however, keeping it hidden definitely leads to questions. Not the least of his problems comes from using terminology such as ‘deliverables’ to describe his papers and preparations for congressional testimony in communication with his supporters. The term ‘deliverable’ is defined by business dictionary.com as a “Report or item that must be completed and delivered under the terms of an agreement or contract.”

Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 11.41.21 AM

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Although these articles are not within the timeframe of the financial contributions alleged in the Times, these help to clarify Soon’s position on climate science. These publications include:

“Recent Warming is not Historically Unique”.  Callie Baliunas & Willie Soon (2001.04.17)Capitalism Magazine. In which he concludes “The facts are simple. The Little Optimum and Little Ice Age were real. They were also widespread over the globe. The twentieth century is not the least bit climatically unusual. So why the recent media hysteria that the twentieth century is the warmest of the last 1,000 years?”

“Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years” Volume 32, Issue 16. August 2005. Geophysical Research Letters. As the title suggests, this article attributes recent climate data to “features that are highly correlated with the Sun’s intrinsic magnetic variability especially on multidecadal time scales.”

 
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Posted by on February 25, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

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Debate Season

So far I’ve watched three debates and I’m looking forward to more. Unfortunately, we only had one chance to watch Biden and Ryan discuss the issues and their campaign’s positions on them. I thought the Vice Presidential debate was great because it was well moderated (what a relief), engaging and I think we actually got to hear more frank and interactive discussion than we see from candidates at the top of the ticket. Further, both candidates brought their A game – I don’t think anyone thinks either candidate was unprepared or asleep at the switch.

However, there was another debate that was both highly entertaining and informative this year: Stewart and O’Reilly’s ‘Rumble in the Air-Conditioned Auditorium.’ Here O’Reilly played the part of Obama and was less engaged than I would have liked to have seen him and moderation was as farcical as the title of the debate itself. Of course this debate was largely in fun, but there was a lot of honest and detailed discussion of the issues… well, maybe not that. Actually, I felt that this debate should have been titled, ‘Which is the real world?’ because listening to the two debaters, you would definitely assume that they could not be talking about the same planet.

Anyway, I thought I’d see what you guys thought.

ps – here’s a link to last night’s debate on Youtube if you missed it: http://youtu.be/j3roG09O6T4

 
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Posted by on October 12, 2012 in Uncategorized

 

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Chris Christie

Boy. The look on Romney’s face as Gov. Christie was speaking at the Republican National Convention – “I wish I could getImage the crowd riled up like this!”

 

 
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Posted by on August 28, 2012 in Uncategorized

 

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